State of the Real Estate Market: October 2019
Curious to know how the real estate market is doing in Ontario, Manitoba, and Alberta? We thought so.
Our monthly update will help you better understand the current state of the market so you can make informed decisions with your real estate purchases.
The Toronto Real Estate Board reports1 the GTA experiencing strong sales growth with a 14% increase compared to October 2018. The decline of new listings continues to be a concern in the GTA, with supply continuing to tighten while prices increase. "As market conditions in the GTA have steadily tightened throughout 2019, we have seen an acceleration in the annual rate of price growth. While the current pace of price growth remains moderate, we will likely see stronger price growth moving forward if sales growth continues to outpace listings growth, leading to more competition between home buyers," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Chief Market Analyst. This is supported by October 2019 seeing the highest annual rate of price growth, up 5.8% from last year. The average selling price for a home in Toronto is $852,142, a year-over-year increase of 5.5%.
The Ottawa real estate market saw strong sales in October with a 16.9% increase compared to October 20182. Condominium sales were the most prevalent in Ottawa with 53% of all units sold falling in the condominium class in a price range of $225,000-$349,999. OREB President Dwight Delahunt commented, “New listings are down, inventory remains scarce, and yet more homes changed hands this October than in the past decade and a half. It’s perplexing at first; however, when you consider the current breakneck transaction pace in the Ottawa resale market, often requiring home buyers and sellers to make swift decisions, it makes sense.” The average selling price for a condominium-class property is $319,208 and the average selling price for a residential-class property is $483,405, a year-over-year increase of 18.3% and 7.6% respectively.
In the Hamilton-Burlington region, sales numbers are up from August and September, in addition to increasing 6.4% from October 20183. The RAHB market saw an increase in sales for detached single-family properties and townhomes, and a decrease in condominium sales. RAHB President Bob Van de Vrande reports, “The RAHB market area experienced more activity in October with an increase in number of sales from last month, as well as from the previous year, which is good news for sellers. The number of new listings dropped by eight per cent compared to October 2018, and by nearly 12 per cent since last month, so there was less choice for buyers.” The average selling price for a home in Hamilton-Burlington region is $602,029, a year-over-year increase of 7.1%.
Despite low inventory, the Kitchener-Waterloo region saw strong sales in October with 538 residential properties sold, an increase of 4.1% compared to October 20184. Over 60% of sales were detached homes, resulting in strong sales numbers. The days on market is low at 22 days contrasted to other Ontario markets. KWAR President Brian Santos comments, “Seasonal strength in October is common as people look to make moves before Winter. With a scarcity of listings, buyers continue to snap up properties in the Kitchener-Waterloo area at a robust rate.” The average selling price for a home in Kitchener-Waterloo is $533,288, a year-over-year increase of 9.1%.
The Niagara Region saw better year-over-year sales growth compared to last month with a 14.9% increase from October 20185. Deanna Gunter, President of the Niagara Association of REALTORS®, comments, “While maintaining average levels, the number of home sales in Niagara did increase slightly in October. That said, with supply still limited it remains a challenging market for buyers. Moderate sales figures likely reflect the combination of tight supply and rising prices.” With tight supply and homes averaging 44 days on the market, buyers are forced to move quickly if they want to purchase a specific home. The average selling price for a home in the Niagara Region is $421,500, a year-over-year increase of 7.3%.
The London and St Thomas Association of REALTORS® reported the best October for home sales on record since October 1978 with a sales growth of 3.4% compared to October 20186. The number of active listings is well below the 10-year average. "This speaks to the brisk pace of the local real estate market, which clearly favours sellers," said Earl Taylor, 2019 LSTAR President. The average home price is $412,883, a year-over-year increase of 8.7%.
Windsor-Essex County experienced sales growth of 7.4% compared to October 20186. Looking at year-to-date sales, the largest price range where homes were sold was in the $300,000-$359,999 range, accounting for 17.2% of all residential units sold in 2019. October home sales mimic the year-to-date figures with 18.4% of sales having occurred in that price range. Average sales prices are the highest they have been since July 2019, after a dip in August and September. The average home price is $342,543, a year-over-year increase of 10.2%.
The Winnipeg real estate market saw a more modest increase in home listings compared to recent months8. “We are starting to see adjustments in new listings activity to be more in line with last year. The healthy supply of listings we are enjoying this year is contributing to strong sales as buyers take advantage of our wide selection of offerings,” commented Ken Clark, president of Winnipeg REALTORS®. The increase in supply has made it more affordable, but also more competitive for buyers. As a result, the majority of listings sold at or below list price. Compared to many other major cities in Canada, Winnipeg is affordable with 60% of single-family homes being in the $200,000 to $399,999 price range and 51% of condominiums being sold in the $150,000 to $249,999 price range. The average selling price for a single-family home is $315,889 and the average for condominiums is $227,878, a year-over-year decrease of 2.7% and 2.8% respectively.
The Alberta housing market is improving slowly with sales reflecting 8% growth compared to last October9. “Given the current economic climate it is not a surprise that resale housing demand remains slow,” says Ann-Marie Lurie, AREA Chief Economist. “However, there have been some reductions in inventory as the amount of product coming onto the market is also slowing, helping push the market toward more balanced conditions. If these trends continue it should eventually support more stability in housing prices.” In Calgary, sales activity improved over last year’s levels, but is still low compared to recent decades. The over $500,000 market has struggled to complete sales as supply continues to rise. In Edmonton, new listings are slowing down and sales slowly improving which is moving the market towards more stable conditions.
With inventory shrinking and year-over-year prices climbing in many Canadian markets, sellers should look to list this winter. Many consider the spring market to be the best time to sell, but that is also the time when the most amount of homes are on the market. This is appealing to buyers, but for sellers this means there is more competition.
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Randall Weese is a licensed REALTOR® with 13 years’ experience in Ontario who currently holds Broker licenses in Ontario, Manitoba and Alberta. Randall has worked in a variety of business models within the real estate industry. He has been a REALTOR® at one of the largest brokerages in Canada, managed a boutique brokerage, and founded and operated his own brokerage in the Greater Toronto Area; all in addition to acting as a listing agent on thousands of homes across the country during his career. Randall is currently working at Purplebricks where he is the Broker of Record for Ontario, Broker for Alberta and Associate Broker for Manitoba. Furthermore, he oversees Purplebricks’ Customer Service and Compliance departments.
1 TRREB October 2019 Market Update
2 OREB October 2019 Market Update
3 RAHB October 2019 Market Update
4 KWAR October 2019 Market Update
5 Niagara Association of REALTORS® October Market Update
6 LSTAR October 2019 Market Update
7 WECAR October 2019 Market Update
8 Winnipeg REALTORS® October 2019 Market Update
9 AREA October 2019 Market Update